To win the Senate, the Republicans need to win a net six seats. This was never an easy task, but the Republicans have been helped by several factors. For one thing, many more Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans. Moreover, many of those Democrats are running in states where Republicans dominate and where Obama imploded. Not to mention that mid-term elections tend to favor the out-of-power party in any event.
Much more importantly, however, the Republicans are finally getting it right while the Democrats are imploding. Specifically, the Republicans have crushed their fringe in fight after fight and they don’t have a single crazy running in any of the key races. That’s a huge deal. Moreover, the Republicans who are running tend to be well-liked incumbents like Lamar Alexander in Tennessee or the well-liked Cory Gardener in Colorado, who managed to avoid an ugly primary fight for the first time in living Colorado Republican memory.
At the same time, the Democrats are imploding with candidates who are awash in scandals, with retirements, and now with a resignation in Montana which has shifted that seat from “most likely Republican” to “all but certainly Republican.” Even beyond that, the Democrats are in the horrible position of needing to defend the debacle that is Obamacare (something the public hates more and more every day), needing to defend the aloof and incompetent Obama, needing to defend the kiddie invasion of the border, needing to defend the jobless economy, needing to defend Obama’s assault on oil and coal (which are vital industries in many of the states at play), and in places like Colorado, needing to defend an ill-advised assault on gun rights. The result is a truly ugly playing field for these people.
So here is the score:
States Republicans Should Win
Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia
States Republicans Are Likely To Win
Arkansas, Louisiana
50/50 Chance of Republican Pick Up
Alaska, Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia
Sucker States Where GOP Will Spend Money and Lose
Michigan, New Hampshire, Oregon
Possible Republican Losses
That means the Republicans are likely to pick up five, with a good shot at four more. They only need six. Against this, the Republicans may lose Georgia and Kentucky, but I doubt it. In Georgia, the Republicans picked the best of a bunch of weirdoes as their candidate, and he’s not horrible. The problem is the Democrats are running the daughter of the very popular Sam Nunn. Still, Georgia leans strongly to the right. In Kentucky, the problem is that the talk-radio-right has decided to prove to the world that Mitch McConnell “can’t win” by throwing a major tantrum and trying to make him lose. Ultimately, though, Kentucky too leans strongly to the right.Georgia, Kentucky
I suspect that both states’ natural strong conservative leanings will lead to Republican victories despite the hurdles. But even if that isn’t the case, right now it appears the Republicans will win just enough other seats to take the Senate even if they lost both of those... especially if the focus remains on the Democrats and their stupidity. It’s hard to defend stupid.
And in that regard, we seem to have hit a lucky wave. For one thing, the Tea Party groups now appear to be turning on each other for “not supporting” each other, and there don’t seem to be any issues right now where the talk-radio-right has the chance to make things about themselves. Obama too seems to be in lash-out mode, which won’t help him or the Democrats. Plus, as we near the election, talk of Obamacare and re-enrollment (and fines) will grow. I also suspect that come November, the fringe-left will be in psychotic mode over Iraq, unless that somehow solves itself suddenly, which is unlikely. So that will dog the Democrats too. So all told, the stars may be aligning for this one.
20 comments:
I'll buy that Iowa is 50/50 when the scales finally tip to the right. My neighbors to the east have a strange habit of waxing conservative followed by a compunction to vote liberal that I just can't sort out.
tryanmax, We'll see. They do seem happy to vote pretty far left. But this is a midterm election and apparently things are going well for the Republican. I guess we'll see.
we will see for sure. If it happens, maybe we keep "O" from appointing a mutant teenage ninja Sotomayor to replace Ruth Bader if she falls on her sword (or is pushed onto it.) Hillary will run as a Washington "outsider centrist" who can bring the sides together the way Bubba did in the 90's.
Jed, It would definitely change the dynamics, but I don't think Hillary can run as a centrist because she will lose the primary. She needs to run as a progressive to get over that hurdle.
In terms of judges, sadly, I doubt the Republicans would stop anything. They might slow it, but they won't stop it.
Despite being a former Tea Party member, I was glad to see that none of the TP candidates have made it through the primaries. For all of the brainpower, they are really lousy at picking viable non-whackadoodle candidates. Though that guy in Mississippi is still demanding a recount and vows not to stop counting until he wins...
I just don't get the attack on McConnell. I think he is one of the few that have fought the hardest to hold the conservative line.
I think you are right about the Dems. They are in the same place they were in 2010 and playing it the same way. Well, except now they are playing the "Impeachment" card trying to convince everyone that all the Republicans need is the Senate and then it's "Impeachment City" here we come. I hear the "I" word bandied about on the fringe right, but nothing like what's coming from the WH.
And on Hillary. It's entertaining that now she is attacking Obama for not being aggressive enough when she herself helped shape his policy of "Try Not To Do Stupid Sh*t" foreign policy. However, it does make her look tough and kind of overshadows that "We were so poor we almost couldn't afford the multi-million dollar mortgages for our multiple houses we had to buy when Bill left office! Poor us. See we are just like you" PR disaster.
Bev, Unfortunately for Hillary, she's getting blowback from the left. That won't help her in the primary. And if they are feeling ornery enough, they will choose someone else. I guess we'll see how it plays out.
On the Tea Party, I'm glad none of them got through either because those would be lost seats. Also, some of the people they are targeting are very solid conservatives with excellent track records.
The attacks on McConnell come from this idea they've built up that "the RINOs" are running the party. Basically, they've spun a fantasy where all the Republicans have done since forever is pander to the Democrats, and so anyone in the leadership is suspect, as is anyone who doesn't foam at the mouth when they talk about the Democrats. McConnell is both leadership and hasn't taken a single step to cause the Senate to explode. Hence, he has become a target and no matter what he does, they see it as collaboration. It's stupid, but that's how groupthink works.
There are a few idiots who speak about impeachment, but no one listens to them. Mainly, this is a leftist attempt to make the right look bad, but I don't think anyone is buying. Worse for them, they will come to obsess on the other issues, so distractions won't placate them.
I just drove back from Montana and I like the simplicity of the Daines (R) for senate campaign: More jobs, less government.
Nothing on immigration or gay marriage. My understanding is with his lead he is sticking with a positive campaign, the latest showing him going fishing with his daughter. Makes him look normal.
In Colorado, Udall has been hitting Gardner hard on hating women and sending jobs to China while Gardner has been running a few mostly positive ads. Udall doesn't seem to be getting anywhere and the last poll showed them tied. Not a good position for an incumbent but I would feel more comfortable if Gardner had a lead. My guess is the Gardner camp is waiting to start a blitz just prior to the election but after the mail in ballots go out.
Koshcat, That's the way to do it -- short, simple, positive message.
On Gardner, I too get the sense that Udall's attempts to paint him as a woman-hating extremist just aren't working. Without a nasty primary, there's just no history there where people have seen Gardner say things that would back that up. So it sounds like Udall is just whipping out a generic playbook.
Looking at Daines' and Gardner's ads. Very good.
Kit, The ads I've seen have been pretty good.
In modern times second term midterms never go well for the president's party (if a party wants to lose popularity in a hurry, they should win power) so I'm confident the Republicans will do well in 2014.
Its nice that the Republicans have put up a good field of candidates though. I don't think it matters much in 2014 (even joke candidates can win a wave election, though they tend to wash out when the wave recedes) but it gives me hope for 2016.
Anthony, The problem with the joke candidates is that many of them do implode in elections they simply shouldn't win... like O'Donnell in Delaware. And you are right that having better candidates will help a lot in 2016, which could be a tricky year.
Any thoughts from my fellow Commentaramans on the riots in Ferguson, Missouri?
Kit,
I've got no problem with the people peacefully protesting (though I think it is pointless and dangerous given that all that can be done seems to be getting done) but the looters are just thugs seizing an opportunity. Looting and burning down local stores doesn't hurt cops any, it hurts innocent people and the community at large.
Sadly, there are people who are only good because society forces them to be good, so as soon as the opportunity presents itself, they show their true natures.
Given what those Huffington Post reporters experienced (getting arrested and roughed up for taking a picture of a SWAT team clearing a McDonalds, with everyone involved refusing to give names because they knew they were in the wrong) I'm willing to concede that some of the local cops are thugs with badges.
As for the Michael Brown shooting itself, the cops and witnesses are giving very different accounts. Its a real shame there is no dashcam footage, but forensics ought to be able to offer up some useful info since the police are saying the officer shot Brown repeatedly in the middle of a fight someone besides the officer started (officers haven't said Brown, but one assumes that is the case) but witnesses have stated the officer shot a fleeing Brown in the back repeatedly.
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/08/14/police-clash-with-michael-brown-shooting-protesters-in-ferguson-two-reporters/
Right now it looks like a bunch of opportunists are in Ferguson to steal, plunder and act big....Al Sharpton included...
The Tea Party started on the principle of responsible fiscal policy in government. It had no social agenda. In fact, it's more of a movement, wherein the principles are more interested in changing fiscal perspectives than in forming an actual political party. But it gets a bad rep because people think of it as a party and various groups try to exploit the movement on that basis, calling themselves TPs, when in fact they're just skimming profits off well-intentioned folks like the regular parties do. I'm looking at you, Tea Party Express.
And then there are the crazies; everybody's got the crazies to deal with. I'm the NRA and once in a great while when I go to the range, I take one look and go straight home. It's very rare, but it happens. Crazies glom onto anything popular to justify their wackitude and sometimes it's scary.
I think the power of the Tea Party movement is that it is pushing the party away from the old RINO path and when it finishes that job, it will be enough. Take McConnell, he's an opportunist and a dirty fighter. He beat his challenger bloody, but also incorporated truly conservative positions. I'm a Midwesterner and I can tell you that, in the fall, Kentucky TPrs will come out and vote for him, he'll beat hell out of Grimes and probably move rightward through 2016. I'm cool with that.
I see the Tea Party Movement doing what the NRA has done over my lifetime; hold on hard to one clean message and point out all the faults in the opposing arguments, until the country moves naturally in their direction. Gun control used to be on the rampage, but now it's on life support even after multiple mass shootings. You can do that to any issue without being a political party when your logic is sound and you are persistent.
As to impeachment, yes, the President is committing high crimes and no, he should not be impeached. The country will not allow it, so the Republican position to focus on productive issues is sound. This is a Republic, which means that it is always important to use discretion when applying the law.
KRS, I agree completely and I hope guess about the Tea Party's future is a good one. Hopefully, they'll shed their crazies and their opportunists now and move forward with their original mission.
Critch, Agreed.
Andrew, there's a new first person shooter game called, "Battlefield Hardline," where you get to brutually kill racist Tea Party types. There are even Gadsden Flags in the mix.
I also recall Marvel comics using the Falcon and Captain America to paint the Tea Partiers as racist white supremacists and later giving the usual sorry-if-you're-offended apologies.
Crazies abound. I wonder sometimes if nonsense like this only brings out more of them.
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